* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902025 05/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 31 38 49 57 55 38 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 31 38 49 57 55 38 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 25 29 31 30 25 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 6 11 12 20 25 32 27 22 21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -5 -5 -2 1 0 -3 -4 -5 -4 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 208 231 205 181 152 161 172 174 192 210 228 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.5 27.3 27.3 28.6 28.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 165 164 161 156 149 136 136 149 147 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 -51.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 5 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 73 70 64 62 55 50 47 45 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 17 19 22 24 22 14 6 1 2 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 35 28 33 43 39 53 45 38 16 9 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 61 61 92 154 165 158 86 52 0 5 12 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 3 2 -3 -3 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 492 501 515 513 503 462 419 340 263 188 136 8 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 52 49 45 42 32 16 6 3 3 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 3. 11. 19. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 4. -8. -13. -12. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 11. 18. 29. 37. 35. 18. -2. -14. -18. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 102.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 05/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.99 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 17.8% 6.6% 3.3% 2.0% 10.8% 4.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 6.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 3.6% 1.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 15.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 8.0% 12.0% 35.0% SDCON: .2% 10.5% 4.1% 1.0% .3% 5.8% 6.6% 17.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 05/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##