* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902025 05/27/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 38 55 64 63 53 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 38 55 64 63 53 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 37 38 34 26 21 19 23 26 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 11 18 26 26 28 20 17 22 36 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -5 -3 -2 -2 -7 -4 -6 0 -2 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 213 215 201 181 161 140 169 176 186 210 219 232 246 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.3 29.2 27.8 27.9 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.0 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 169 166 166 165 156 156 141 142 151 153 150 144 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 75 73 69 64 58 53 51 49 47 38 33 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 16 19 25 26 24 20 10 3 2 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 38 42 39 44 45 55 53 53 30 18 12 21 47 16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 63 51 58 115 163 180 101 61 40 2 13 31 10 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 1 3 0 -2 0 4 2 8 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 472 465 460 462 468 439 408 347 283 176 94 -4 -97 -268 -467 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 53 50 47 44 36 20 9 4 3 8 7 3 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 3. 11. 18. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 14. 11. -4. -12. -13. -11. -11. -9. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 8. 1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 18. 35. 44. 43. 33. 10. -5. -9. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 101.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 05/27/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.4 36.9 to 148.5 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 29.8% 14.0% 6.5% 4.3% 23.9% 38.0% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 12.1% 5.6% 2.4% 1.5% 8.1% 12.7% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12.0% 16.0% 13.0% SDCON: .5% 12.5% 4.8% 1.7% .7% 10.0% 14.3% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 05/27/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##