* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902025 05/27/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 38 54 67 71 65 47 26 23 24 26 28 30 34 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 38 54 67 71 65 47 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 43 42 35 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 8 16 22 25 30 22 10 11 12 15 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -7 -5 -3 0 -2 -3 -7 -7 -2 0 -3 -3 -2 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 199 218 216 215 201 171 143 147 169 183 212 240 248 250 289 294 327 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 169 168 166 164 155 154 157 153 150 152 152 156 153 151 157 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.3 -52.3 -51.6 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 7 6 11 10 14 11 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 76 75 71 65 61 60 59 58 60 59 54 50 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 15 14 17 22 26 26 24 16 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 25 36 35 36 51 43 51 49 44 24 8 11 26 35 1 28 200 MB DIV 92 76 74 49 66 168 149 119 57 57 13 -6 7 10 -3 -19 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 2 0 -3 0 1 0 3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 537 524 511 508 518 515 527 468 330 122 -80 -175 -314 -327 -246 -186 -207 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.7 17.1 19.0 20.5 21.6 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.9 102.5 103.1 103.8 105.3 106.6 107.2 107.0 106.1 104.8 103.5 102.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 9 10 9 7 6 5 3 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 55 56 54 52 48 42 32 20 8 7 6 7 5 3 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. 40. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 15. 19. 19. 7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 18. 34. 47. 51. 45. 27. 6. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.1 101.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 05/27/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.2 36.9 to 148.5 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 27.5% 12.8% 5.7% 3.3% 22.1% 39.9% 6.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 5.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 11.1% 5.1% 2.1% 1.2% 7.4% 13.4% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 6.0% 14.0% 9.0% SDCON: .7% 10.0% 4.0% 1.5% .6% 6.7% 13.7% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 05/27/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##