* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902025 05/27/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 45 52 69 81 86 81 67 46 33 33 33 34 33 34 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 45 52 69 81 86 81 67 46 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 32 36 41 54 67 75 72 62 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 1 3 4 8 9 19 29 25 27 22 18 17 21 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -7 -5 0 -2 -1 -5 -6 -6 -2 -3 -2 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 63 229 174 141 175 157 148 152 169 184 190 222 241 256 265 279 297 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.1 29.4 29.3 28.5 28.4 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 168 168 167 166 158 157 149 148 154 153 154 148 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 9 10 13 13 700-500 MB RH 75 77 78 77 78 75 70 65 59 57 59 58 58 54 50 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 13 15 15 20 22 25 24 20 11 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 4 16 28 33 38 37 43 52 34 32 18 -7 -2 0 -1 0 200 MB DIV 92 89 65 70 79 120 127 116 67 42 36 -4 21 40 0 -17 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 2 3 2 -4 -2 3 1 1 3 -2 LAND (KM) 574 569 544 524 521 509 464 428 332 202 33 -40 -193 -333 -371 -291 -231 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.6 14.6 15.7 17.0 18.7 20.5 21.9 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.8 101.4 101.9 102.5 103.8 105.3 106.4 106.9 106.8 106.0 105.1 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 51 53 55 56 55 48 38 23 9 5 8 7 4 6 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 20. 26. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 5. 8. 13. 19. 21. 16. 3. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 9. 1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 20. 27. 44. 56. 61. 56. 42. 21. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 100.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 05/27/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.96 20.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 34.9 to 8.5 1.00 15.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -16.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.49 4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 77% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 64.6% 51.9% 0.0% 0.0% 64.3% 77.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 45.8% 28.0% 16.8% 9.3% 47.3% 85.5% 28.6% Bayesian: 2.9% 25.6% 17.0% 6.3% 3.7% 1.2% 3.6% 13.4% Consensus: 3.2% 45.3% 32.3% 7.7% 4.3% 37.6% 55.4% 14.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 26.0% 15.0% 4.0% 1.0% 18.0% 25.0% 29.0% SDCON: 2.6% 35.6% 23.6% 5.8% 2.6% 27.8% 40.2% 21.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 05/27/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##