* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902025 05/27/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 31 37 45 54 70 85 91 86 76 60 47 40 34 31 27 28 V (KT) LAND 25 31 37 45 54 70 85 91 86 76 60 47 40 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 33 38 43 57 71 82 83 74 61 50 43 39 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 5 5 7 11 16 25 29 25 24 19 17 14 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -4 -2 -9 -6 -6 -6 -3 -5 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 69 62 215 214 196 178 153 135 146 172 180 205 242 264 264 276 289 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.6 30.6 30.2 30.1 29.1 29.1 28.3 27.3 27.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 171 167 166 154 154 147 136 135 145 144 143 145 145 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 5 4 8 5 11 700-500 MB RH 77 75 78 78 78 77 70 65 59 57 57 59 56 52 47 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 14 18 23 25 25 24 19 14 11 7 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 8 20 42 31 37 36 51 37 25 10 3 -3 -5 13 -4 200 MB DIV 92 87 70 68 82 88 162 132 95 65 17 -38 -32 16 13 22 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 4 2 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 533 524 493 472 452 459 454 477 438 360 227 152 101 15 -60 -134 -231 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.4 17.7 19.4 20.8 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.2 100.8 101.4 102.1 103.6 105.3 106.8 107.7 107.9 107.6 107.1 106.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 7 6 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 52 54 55 53 45 37 25 12 5 3 4 8 7 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 12. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 21. 24. 22. 15. 7. 3. -2. -3. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 10. 1. -4. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 29. 45. 60. 66. 61. 51. 35. 22. 16. 9. 6. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 99.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 05/27/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 21.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.90 14.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -16.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 8.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 8.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.48 4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 67% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 81% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 70.9% 53.8% 0.0% 0.0% 67.3% 80.8% 0.0% Logistic: 32.6% 81.0% 68.2% 53.5% 40.2% 76.8% 85.5% 36.6% Bayesian: 20.5% 69.4% 65.8% 39.8% 4.9% 58.3% 60.6% 7.5% Consensus: 17.7% 73.8% 62.6% 31.1% 15.0% 67.5% 75.6% 14.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 05/27/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##