* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902025 05/26/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 36 50 67 78 84 77 67 56 48 40 33 28 22 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 36 50 67 78 84 77 67 56 48 40 33 28 22 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 27 35 46 58 64 63 55 46 40 34 30 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 3 2 4 8 10 17 26 23 22 19 15 16 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -5 -5 -2 -4 0 -1 0 -5 -5 -8 -3 -1 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 117 96 90 99 110 109 158 147 137 156 182 195 226 227 226 226 252 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.2 29.0 27.2 26.0 25.7 24.8 23.7 26.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 168 168 165 163 156 154 135 122 118 108 97 126 120 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 3 3 6 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 76 76 76 73 68 63 59 58 59 55 51 48 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 11 12 15 21 23 25 23 20 16 13 11 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR -7 1 9 19 31 49 43 35 46 48 25 24 4 8 -13 15 13 200 MB DIV 88 82 88 56 67 111 125 102 104 92 46 -28 -48 -5 23 17 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 2 -1 1 4 4 0 0 0 -1 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 585 578 558 530 514 498 480 464 443 360 297 252 252 178 86 23 21 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.8 17.2 18.7 20.1 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.3 100.8 101.3 101.9 103.1 104.4 105.7 106.9 107.5 107.9 108.1 108.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 6 4 4 5 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 54 56 56 51 43 35 20 7 3 1 1 0 0 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 13. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 36. 35. 34. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 14. 21. 26. 23. 18. 12. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 30. 47. 58. 64. 57. 47. 36. 28. 20. 13. 8. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 99.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 05/26/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.9 36.9 to 148.5 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 45.0% 29.3% 14.2% 6.5% 41.1% 46.8% 19.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 9.1% 9.5% Consensus: 1.4% 15.4% 9.8% 4.8% 2.2% 13.8% 18.6% 9.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 05/26/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##