* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 10/09/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 26 25 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 26 25 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 27 30 28 25 27 21 24 25 26 26 29 21 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 2 -2 -1 -5 -5 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 161 165 169 179 185 198 211 219 232 237 255 263 263 260 266 247 225 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.3 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 153 154 154 152 144 137 133 130 127 127 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 5 7 5 6 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 41 38 37 34 32 30 30 30 28 27 26 25 24 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 27 26 20 24 6 15 6 0 -25 -25 -32 -38 -45 -42 -39 200 MB DIV 28 28 17 4 -2 -3 -11 -31 -27 -20 -14 -26 -18 -33 -33 5 19 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 4 3 1 2 6 3 1 0 0 1 -2 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 261 276 227 178 144 80 27 24 70 158 241 310 394 516 646 784 945 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.5 22.9 22.8 22.4 21.9 21.5 21.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.8 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.8 110.4 111.1 111.8 112.4 113.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 3 4 4 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 29 29 30 32 33 29 20 13 10 7 5 5 6 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. -0. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 108.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 10/09/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 10/09/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##