* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 10/09/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 19 18 19 21 23 22 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 19 18 19 21 23 22 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 18 22 27 28 24 24 21 23 24 25 27 28 24 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 4 2 -1 -1 -5 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 169 168 168 171 182 193 211 209 222 223 241 249 258 253 265 256 239 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.1 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 152 153 156 156 150 143 136 131 131 130 132 133 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 4 7 3 8 3 7 3 6 5 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 44 41 39 37 36 34 30 32 29 28 26 26 24 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 18 27 24 19 16 10 9 0 -10 -20 -24 -44 -32 -41 -18 200 MB DIV 20 23 25 14 4 -17 -8 -21 -34 -19 -21 -10 -34 -30 -46 -42 -1 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 5 0 4 2 8 0 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 241 271 262 213 168 95 36 17 15 90 173 235 295 362 472 605 759 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.0 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.7 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.5 110.0 110.6 111.3 111.9 112.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 29 28 29 31 34 33 27 17 12 9 7 7 8 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 12. 15. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.2 108.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 10/09/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.14 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 10/09/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##