* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 10/09/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 26 25 24 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 26 25 23 23 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 18 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 16 21 30 32 26 24 23 22 23 26 28 25 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 3 3 -2 -5 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 140 153 169 173 176 182 194 211 204 216 217 234 235 253 258 253 253 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 153 152 151 152 154 151 144 137 130 125 123 124 126 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 6 7 4 7 3 8 3 7 3 6 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 48 46 43 39 37 36 34 31 32 31 30 27 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 34 25 20 24 30 19 16 10 5 0 -12 -28 -25 -39 -35 -32 200 MB DIV 26 23 12 18 28 9 3 -16 -13 -9 -11 -11 -6 -39 -32 -46 -21 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 4 1 5 2 8 1 4 0 1 0 4 0 LAND (KM) 203 234 260 283 248 155 82 18 -11 45 128 221 285 345 387 470 561 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.1 22.9 22.5 22.1 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.9 108.2 108.4 108.6 109.1 109.4 109.7 110.0 110.5 111.2 112.0 112.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 3 2 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 32 30 29 27 30 31 28 20 12 8 6 5 5 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.7 107.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 10/09/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 13.9% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.4% 1.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 10/09/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##