* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 10/07/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 45 44 41 35 31 29 30 31 31 29 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 45 44 41 35 31 29 30 31 31 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 37 36 32 28 25 23 21 20 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 3 2 7 10 18 26 27 24 22 20 19 19 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -6 0 1 2 8 6 1 2 5 7 5 2 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 107 97 110 157 141 123 163 181 201 214 232 242 250 255 262 254 240 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.8 28.9 29.1 30.0 30.6 30.9 30.8 29.8 29.3 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 161 162 163 160 151 153 161 167 167 168 160 155 161 159 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 4 6 4 6 4 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 59 58 57 54 51 46 43 40 37 33 32 32 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 42 36 30 34 33 20 17 9 11 2 18 18 12 -21 -22 -34 200 MB DIV 18 30 32 28 28 31 16 17 -11 0 -1 -35 -19 -28 -17 -20 -35 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 2 2 3 2 0 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 202 206 201 206 195 175 158 185 201 157 112 97 120 156 160 196 260 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.6 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.3 106.5 106.7 106.8 107.0 107.2 107.4 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.1 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 34 34 34 36 40 41 40 40 40 40 42 44 42 37 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. 14. 17. 21. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 15. 14. 11. 5. 1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 105.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 10/07/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.85 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.30 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 35.2% 20.7% 17.0% 0.0% 27.3% 24.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 22.9% 14.6% 7.8% 5.5% 5.0% 1.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 20.1% 11.8% 8.3% 1.9% 10.8% 8.6% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.3% 14.0% 7.9% 4.6% 1.4% 6.4% 4.8% .3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 10/07/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##