* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 10/07/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 43 43 39 36 35 36 35 35 33 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 43 43 39 36 35 36 35 35 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 36 34 31 27 24 23 21 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 7 5 8 8 13 20 25 22 20 23 25 21 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -5 -1 -2 4 6 4 1 2 4 2 -2 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 102 104 98 102 112 117 146 161 189 196 213 221 231 235 247 235 227 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.6 29.3 29.7 30.0 29.5 28.7 28.8 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 161 162 163 164 163 158 154 158 160 156 148 149 157 158 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 8 5 7 4 7 3 7 3 7 4 9 6 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 60 60 59 56 51 50 47 45 42 39 35 34 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 36 37 31 32 25 18 4 7 -2 8 6 7 -15 -19 -31 200 MB DIV 12 17 24 29 20 37 28 20 0 -9 0 -26 -29 -28 -37 -18 -31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 5 1 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 211 216 212 207 191 167 147 123 139 180 178 165 187 206 230 252 309 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.7 21.9 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.7 106.0 106.2 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.8 107.0 107.2 107.3 107.3 107.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 35 35 35 35 37 41 43 42 42 41 41 40 36 33 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 3. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 18. 21. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 9. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 105.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 10/07/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.84 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 22.7% 18.1% 15.3% 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 26.8% Logistic: 2.3% 11.3% 6.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 11.5% 8.1% 6.1% 1.0% 9.2% 9.1% 9.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.6% 7.2% 4.5% 3.5% .5% 4.6% 4.5% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 10/07/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##