* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 10/07/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 40 43 42 41 36 33 29 30 31 34 35 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 40 43 42 41 36 33 29 30 31 34 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 39 42 43 42 39 36 32 30 28 26 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 7 4 2 6 9 13 19 19 16 14 16 17 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 -7 -5 1 0 5 5 2 5 8 8 5 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 86 95 101 86 111 147 133 153 183 195 206 233 225 236 240 240 226 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.8 31.0 31.2 30.9 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 160 159 163 166 168 168 168 167 166 168 168 167 164 163 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 7 8 6 7 5 6 4 7 5 6 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 61 63 61 58 52 48 47 46 42 38 37 35 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 22 24 29 29 33 11 4 -4 -3 3 1 2 -14 -27 -28 200 MB DIV 12 16 31 37 33 31 26 14 9 -8 -16 -16 -39 -11 -35 -26 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 167 176 172 162 143 100 75 49 28 51 59 37 46 42 68 117 142 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.3 104.7 105.0 105.2 105.4 105.5 105.7 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.8 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 37 37 37 38 39 43 47 49 50 51 50 47 43 39 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 11. 13. 18. 22. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 12. 11. 6. 3. -1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 104.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 10/07/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.85 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 23.7% 19.3% 16.6% 0.0% 27.6% 36.1% 53.9% Logistic: 1.5% 10.3% 4.4% 2.6% 2.6% 7.8% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 11.9% 8.0% 6.4% 0.9% 11.8% 12.3% 18.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 2.6% 7.9% 5.0% 3.7% .4% 6.9% 6.6% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 10/07/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##