* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 10/07/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 52 48 45 43 42 42 42 43 42 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 52 48 45 43 42 42 42 43 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 43 47 49 49 46 43 39 37 35 33 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 6 6 1 4 4 10 15 18 16 17 16 19 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 -6 -7 0 -1 6 6 4 3 4 6 8 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 73 79 91 92 97 177 117 191 162 195 200 218 236 231 237 245 237 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.8 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 159 160 163 166 167 167 166 167 167 167 167 167 166 167 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 6 8 5 8 4 7 3 8 3 8 4 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 60 62 61 58 55 50 49 47 46 44 40 40 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 21 30 38 31 41 25 7 1 6 8 14 13 8 -20 -30 200 MB DIV 0 12 16 33 44 15 23 21 9 9 -18 -20 -17 -32 -39 -34 -19 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 164 164 168 172 152 115 90 70 52 84 100 97 85 91 70 53 66 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.4 21.7 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.4 104.8 105.2 105.4 105.6 105.8 106.0 106.2 106.3 106.4 106.5 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 38 37 37 37 38 42 45 47 47 46 47 48 47 44 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 19. 23. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 22. 18. 15. 13. 12. 12. 12. 13. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 104.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 10/07/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.84 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 33.4% 23.4% 17.4% 0.0% 31.0% 52.5% 53.8% Logistic: 1.4% 9.0% 3.7% 2.0% 2.1% 6.8% 15.1% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.5% 14.6% 9.1% 6.5% 0.7% 12.6% 22.6% 20.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 11.0% SDCON: 2.7% 10.3% 6.0% 3.7% .8% 7.3% 11.8% 15.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 10/07/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##