* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 08/18/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 36 44 57 66 71 75 77 76 75 73 68 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 36 44 57 66 71 75 77 76 75 73 68 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 45 46 47 48 45 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 20 18 17 18 23 23 26 20 18 9 1 9 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 8 4 2 SHEAR DIR 76 69 73 73 64 44 34 37 39 41 75 81 96 82 247 228 248 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 26.7 25.2 22.1 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 156 154 154 153 155 151 151 154 154 152 133 119 85 77 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 3 5 6 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 76 77 77 78 78 79 79 84 77 69 64 63 56 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 12 12 13 15 21 24 28 30 31 29 28 26 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 41 53 59 61 71 79 76 75 61 37 35 55 63 56 27 18 -15 200 MB DIV 60 79 71 55 57 88 69 80 112 84 64 50 30 50 12 3 1 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -5 -9 -11 -23 -16 -15 -7 0 3 2 8 11 8 3 LAND (KM) 761 815 881 943 951 1040 1228 1402 1515 1513 1361 1125 897 731 654 723 707 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 15.5 15.2 14.6 14.1 14.2 15.4 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.7 116.2 118.7 120.8 121.7 121.0 119.1 117.2 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 13 12 8 4 6 11 11 12 17 20 16 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 18 26 20 24 18 20 17 18 21 24 17 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 39. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. -11. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 13. 19. 24. 26. 25. 20. 18. 14. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 19. 32. 41. 46. 50. 52. 51. 50. 48. 43. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 109.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 08/18/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.90 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.7% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 6.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 3.4% 2.3% 0% 0% 2.6% 3.6% .7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 08/18/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##