* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 08/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 45 53 65 71 79 84 90 91 93 88 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 45 53 65 71 79 84 90 91 93 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 34 38 43 48 54 59 62 62 60 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 15 16 16 15 13 15 20 18 21 19 13 10 12 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 0 -1 3 0 0 -1 4 14 11 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 80 86 80 77 76 68 60 37 41 54 52 58 55 61 54 67 219 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.9 28.9 27.8 25.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 159 158 156 153 155 151 153 151 149 153 154 144 123 108 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 74 72 77 76 76 76 80 81 83 81 75 71 66 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 18 22 27 31 35 36 40 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 25 29 33 32 40 44 42 58 40 39 -5 -3 26 38 47 37 46 200 MB DIV 63 85 67 55 52 35 29 58 55 76 108 103 82 58 26 -12 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -10 -5 -17 -14 -8 -4 0 3 3 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 676 690 702 746 795 872 935 1096 1262 1419 1543 1569 1455 1266 1116 1108 1275 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.3 16.2 15.4 14.2 13.3 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.9 108.8 109.8 110.8 113.0 115.4 117.8 120.0 121.3 121.6 120.9 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 8 7 6 6 8 10 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 23 18 18 26 17 25 16 19 16 17 26 19 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 13. 18. 24. 27. 30. 28. 28. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 28. 40. 46. 54. 59. 65. 66. 68. 63. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 107.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 08/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.29 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 5.6% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.8% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 7.2% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0% 3.9% 2.4% 0% 0% 2.7% 4.1% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 08/17/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##