* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 08/17/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 39 45 50 52 52 51 51 49 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 39 45 50 52 52 51 51 49 50 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 34 34 33 31 29 27 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 20 16 16 18 13 10 8 5 6 14 14 10 7 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 3 4 4 0 0 -2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 61 68 71 53 60 49 22 2 341 265 269 265 313 352 340 263 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.5 26.7 26.7 26.0 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 160 160 156 152 151 132 132 124 134 130 131 128 130 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 74 76 76 76 73 77 75 74 72 71 69 68 65 64 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 4 20 27 36 30 33 24 24 15 45 54 66 53 62 42 46 200 MB DIV 76 66 69 85 73 53 39 42 53 42 43 55 59 63 67 36 11 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -2 -8 -6 -13 -1 -12 -2 -6 -3 -5 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 719 729 735 746 759 792 881 871 983 1113 1275 1458 1654 1873 2036 2181 2186 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.3 14.3 15.3 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.6 18.8 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 106.0 106.8 107.5 108.3 110.2 112.3 114.8 117.4 120.1 122.7 125.4 127.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 14 13 13 13 12 12 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 28 21 19 19 18 25 14 22 2 1 0 3 2 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 27. 26. 26. 24. 25. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 105.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 08/17/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.26 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0% 4.1% 2.7% 0% 0% 3.0% 3.1% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 08/17/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##