* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 08/16/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 32 42 50 59 63 64 63 64 61 58 57 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 24 32 42 50 59 63 64 63 64 61 58 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 26 29 31 31 31 31 29 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 23 23 18 16 12 13 13 11 7 12 18 18 17 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 2 0 1 0 4 1 2 6 2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 72 66 66 62 71 79 73 49 46 33 347 301 290 279 270 259 199 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.3 28.6 28.3 26.5 25.9 24.9 25.8 25.9 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 160 160 160 163 159 152 149 130 124 113 122 122 128 129 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 69 72 75 77 75 76 77 75 72 71 66 62 59 53 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 9 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 16 17 17 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 -3 -1 16 34 38 38 31 29 50 57 50 73 89 98 61 200 MB DIV 72 77 64 53 75 100 62 39 44 40 32 48 44 74 57 41 15 700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -10 -6 -16 -13 -16 -8 -11 -3 -7 2 LAND (KM) 643 667 689 695 692 699 715 811 780 893 1006 1146 1315 1540 1777 1949 2099 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 14.6 15.8 17.1 18.1 19.1 19.9 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.1 104.7 105.4 106.1 107.6 109.5 111.7 114.2 116.9 119.7 122.4 125.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 36 38 29 22 21 26 13 15 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 38. 38. 38. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 10. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 12. 22. 30. 39. 43. 44. 43. 44. 41. 38. 37. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 103.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 08/16/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 08/16/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##