* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 10/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 16 18 18 20 20 15 12 8 13 15 16 10 11 21 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 -2 6 7 -2 2 2 10 6 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 251 226 228 232 241 231 242 271 339 51 85 130 191 236 252 281 292 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 134 133 128 121 117 122 127 130 131 131 132 133 135 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 45 43 41 34 29 28 28 25 27 28 29 27 27 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -44 -39 -47 -45 -45 -53 -52 -39 -10 1 15 8 12 8 2 0 200 MB DIV 9 -1 -8 -13 -31 -13 -24 -50 -42 -11 5 -27 -9 6 -44 -17 -26 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 4 2 0 -1 -4 -8 -6 -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -11 LAND (KM) 2289 2285 2282 2280 2266 2218 2172 2106 2007 1905 1812 1715 1620 1538 1457 1317 1144 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.7 17.4 17.6 17.3 16.7 15.9 15.4 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.1 134.0 133.9 133.8 133.8 134.0 134.3 134.9 135.9 137.0 138.1 139.2 140.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 5 3 4 5 6 7 5 4 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 13 12 7 5 5 6 8 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -17. -20. -19. -18. -18. -17. -16. -15. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 134.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 10/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 10/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##