* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 10/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 15 16 17 19 17 12 10 10 14 11 14 11 18 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -1 3 0 -2 4 4 9 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 303 253 231 229 233 237 236 261 301 17 85 108 155 200 230 263 288 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.0 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 135 133 127 120 124 128 131 133 134 133 134 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 47 47 46 41 33 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -38 -43 -42 -45 -43 -47 -60 -54 -35 -14 -3 2 3 1 6 1 200 MB DIV 12 17 5 -17 -5 -20 -1 -34 -43 -34 -20 0 -24 24 -21 -35 -24 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 -1 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 2314 2323 2333 2330 2320 2261 2186 2124 2032 1920 1784 1651 1523 1421 1329 1239 1091 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.8 16.7 17.2 17.1 16.5 15.8 15.2 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.0 133.8 133.6 133.5 133.5 133.8 134.3 134.8 135.7 136.9 138.4 139.9 141.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 6 7 8 7 5 4 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 14 13 11 7 6 7 9 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -11. -9. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 134.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 10/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 10/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##