* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 10/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 9 11 15 15 15 12 11 8 11 15 13 15 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 6 1 0 1 4 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 287 292 264 228 225 241 230 258 280 338 57 99 137 206 241 260 268 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 136 136 135 132 127 125 129 131 133 136 136 137 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 49 48 48 48 40 36 30 32 30 31 31 34 32 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -39 -44 -51 -46 -53 -51 -58 -59 -49 -28 -13 0 -1 0 -5 -7 200 MB DIV 12 13 22 15 -8 -8 -3 -1 -30 -48 -42 -17 -12 9 12 -40 -25 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 -2 -3 -8 -7 -4 -2 -3 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 2315 2342 2355 2354 2354 2297 2219 2139 2040 1912 1771 1651 1520 1381 1236 1110 960 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.5 16.7 16.4 15.9 15.2 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.1 133.8 133.6 133.5 133.4 133.7 134.2 134.8 135.7 137.0 138.5 139.9 141.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 4 5 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 8 8 9 10 12 14 14 13 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 10. 15. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -11. -9. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.2 134.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 10/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% SDCON: .1% .8% .5% .1% .1% 0% 0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 10/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##