* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 10/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 4 9 13 15 15 15 11 9 9 14 14 11 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 4 7 2 3 5 6 3 SHEAR DIR 301 300 312 249 221 238 243 239 262 306 17 73 112 157 211 242 265 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 135 136 134 128 122 127 131 132 134 135 137 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 50 50 50 48 45 35 30 29 30 30 32 32 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -33 -37 -46 -53 -51 -54 -58 -66 -59 -46 -23 -14 -7 -2 -5 -14 200 MB DIV 0 8 11 20 5 -20 4 9 -16 -39 -53 -10 0 -36 12 -20 -47 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -2 -4 -9 -4 -2 -1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 2232 2232 2238 2260 2269 2271 2220 2164 2109 2009 1868 1708 1577 1435 1279 1153 1014 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.3 16.9 16.7 16.1 15.6 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.0 135.0 134.9 134.6 134.4 134.1 134.3 134.6 135.0 136.0 137.5 139.2 140.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 3 4 4 5 4 3 7 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 8 7 8 10 11 13 14 13 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -15. -13. -10. -7. -6. -4. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 135.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 10/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.41 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.7% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: .1% 2.8% 1.9% 0% 0% 2.0% 0% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 10/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##