* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 10/03/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 21 20 19 17 16 16 19 22 25 28 29 30 29 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 21 20 19 17 16 16 19 22 25 28 29 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 6 6 12 15 15 13 5 8 15 13 8 11 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 -2 1 0 0 1 5 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 326 302 285 272 238 228 254 234 263 309 64 105 127 181 254 250 253 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.7 27.1 26.8 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 137 136 135 132 128 129 135 132 137 138 140 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 53 52 51 49 49 48 47 41 37 36 36 35 38 38 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -35 -35 -42 -48 -50 -58 -62 -70 -66 -45 -28 -12 0 -8 -14 -15 200 MB DIV 16 0 5 11 15 -6 -26 0 0 -31 -15 -21 -7 -25 20 35 12 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 0 -5 -6 -8 -8 -8 -6 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 2252 2258 2289 2305 2328 2347 2307 2242 2164 2081 1955 1783 1611 1445 1281 1126 986 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.3 16.3 15.6 14.9 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.8 134.7 134.4 134.2 133.9 133.5 133.6 134.0 134.6 135.4 136.8 138.7 140.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 4 6 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 11 9 9 13 13 15 16 16 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -3. -0. 3. 4. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 134.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 10/03/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.72 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.45 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.9% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.7% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 4.3% 3.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% SDCON: .1% 3.3% 2.5% .1% 0% 2.1% 1.8% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 10/03/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##