* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 10/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 22 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 22 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 9 9 10 13 15 17 11 3 7 13 11 8 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -5 -1 3 2 1 4 4 5 3 SHEAR DIR 320 308 292 270 267 240 252 246 246 273 288 101 133 155 236 285 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.0 26.2 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 136 137 136 136 133 128 120 124 130 133 136 138 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 50 50 50 50 49 45 35 33 27 30 31 33 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -35 -34 -39 -50 -52 -58 -59 -67 -55 -44 -29 -21 -21 -21 -19 200 MB DIV 1 17 7 4 15 27 -18 0 12 -10 -8 -27 -8 -14 -4 17 -31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 2 3 2 3 -1 -6 -11 -14 -11 -10 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 2268 2279 2299 2315 2335 2354 2337 2273 2207 2132 2032 1894 1722 1559 1381 1215 1091 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.7 16.7 17.3 17.1 16.3 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.6 134.5 134.3 134.1 133.9 133.5 133.4 133.7 134.1 134.7 135.7 137.2 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 4 5 6 5 4 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 11 7 6 7 10 12 14 14 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -10. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 134.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 10/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.67 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.36 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.0% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 10/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##