* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 08/11/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 33 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 34 32 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 33 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 34 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 22 21 21 21 20 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 22 21 21 20 12 15 13 15 12 16 17 16 20 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 2 0 -2 0 1 0 -2 -1 -4 0 -3 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 49 43 44 57 67 81 69 51 60 88 113 120 152 137 140 135 120 SST (C) 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.5 27.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 165 159 154 151 147 143 135 127 127 127 129 127 124 126 132 144 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 6 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 76 75 76 72 74 69 67 59 56 47 45 43 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -31 -29 -21 -18 -4 0 -10 -2 -12 -12 -7 -11 -12 -13 -1 9 200 MB DIV 51 41 23 17 0 -3 23 1 14 -3 -5 -20 -19 -6 -24 -17 -15 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 265 269 241 230 236 269 350 435 481 472 491 528 583 651 720 812 951 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.9 104.1 105.0 105.7 106.9 108.0 109.2 110.1 111.1 112.2 113.2 114.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 32 29 24 17 16 8 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 5 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 101.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 08/11/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.11 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.5% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 08/11/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##