* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 08/10/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 36 40 42 43 43 44 45 45 45 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 36 40 42 43 43 44 45 45 45 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 24 14 16 14 15 13 13 15 14 17 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 5 3 -1 0 2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 64 55 44 45 46 55 75 49 67 67 92 97 132 141 140 136 130 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.9 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.9 26.6 26.5 27.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 168 165 162 153 150 145 141 130 127 128 131 127 126 130 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 79 76 75 76 75 76 73 69 64 59 52 48 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -20 -24 -22 -21 -9 2 -9 -4 -6 -7 -5 -7 -3 -4 -2 9 200 MB DIV 45 63 65 55 42 1 5 41 29 -1 -2 -24 -24 -23 -21 -22 -23 700-850 TADV 5 6 1 1 0 -2 1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 287 286 264 246 228 222 243 319 391 464 479 506 570 662 736 797 866 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.3 101.5 102.5 103.5 105.0 106.2 107.5 108.7 109.7 110.9 112.1 113.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 10 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 23 27 31 28 21 16 15 3 1 1 2 1 1 4 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 99.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 08/10/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.95 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.3% 0.5% 2.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 08/10/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##