* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982024 08/10/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 29 33 37 39 39 39 39 39 40 41 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 29 33 37 39 39 39 39 39 40 41 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 19 20 20 19 20 13 17 15 18 17 19 16 18 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 3 4 2 0 1 1 -3 -1 -2 -5 0 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 65 54 53 48 42 54 48 47 60 81 101 116 132 119 124 111 SST (C) 29.8 30.6 30.8 30.5 30.1 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.2 27.0 26.6 26.5 27.0 27.2 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 173 172 171 167 160 153 150 146 144 131 127 126 131 134 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 9 7 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 79 79 76 77 77 78 75 71 64 62 54 53 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -20 -12 -12 -15 -3 3 7 -9 -10 -11 0 -4 -1 -3 -2 2 200 MB DIV 31 41 54 62 69 40 -4 19 15 20 -1 -12 -32 -29 -21 -15 -23 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 262 248 225 206 185 163 187 223 302 364 450 462 505 570 669 749 838 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.9 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.8 100.0 101.1 102.1 103.7 105.1 106.3 107.6 108.6 109.6 110.5 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 8 6 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 25 26 25 25 26 24 19 16 17 4 1 1 4 5 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 17. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 29. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 97.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST 08/10/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.96 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST 08/10/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##