* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972024 10/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 29 33 37 41 41 45 48 51 54 56 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 25 26 32 36 36 40 44 46 49 52 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 25 28 30 32 34 37 39 42 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 32 27 25 23 23 15 7 9 11 10 9 4 5 1 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 2 6 3 3 -1 -2 -3 0 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 64 60 55 53 47 45 64 71 76 111 111 149 75 95 46 203 244 SST (C) 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.4 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 30.5 30.9 30.8 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 166 169 170 168 169 169 169 170 170 169 171 171 170 169 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 5 4 6 4 7 5 8 6 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 77 78 80 80 82 85 85 86 84 82 77 74 75 73 73 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 45 39 38 40 43 57 54 67 62 73 52 69 94 78 82 88 89 200 MB DIV 101 83 76 87 84 39 45 64 46 38 10 6 19 49 27 52 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -3 -4 -9 -6 -10 0 -7 6 -1 3 LAND (KM) 295 303 294 273 203 76 -54 -49 62 165 228 108 55 77 159 78 80 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.5 14.0 15.2 16.5 17.8 18.8 19.9 20.7 21.4 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 95.8 95.3 94.8 94.4 94.0 93.8 94.0 94.2 93.8 92.7 91.3 89.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 27 28 29 32 34 30 32 33 36 34 22 22 62 88 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 27. 30. 33. 37. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -4. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -5. -6. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 96.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972024 INVEST 10/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.7% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 4.2% .5% 0% 0% .1% .4% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972024 INVEST 10/02/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##