* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972024 10/02/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 26 27 28 33 38 38 42 40 41 43 44 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 26 27 28 26 26 27 27 28 29 30 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 23 26 26 27 30 31 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 26 28 29 23 21 18 7 9 5 9 14 13 13 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -3 -1 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 81 73 75 72 68 59 68 84 79 67 148 141 168 196 206 178 152 SST (C) 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 30.8 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 167 168 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 170 170 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 81 80 82 85 86 86 84 81 76 78 79 77 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 10 7 6 7 8 8 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 49 55 39 48 48 58 55 67 44 52 65 70 65 54 60 200 MB DIV 108 90 103 113 122 102 102 108 95 90 49 31 36 21 28 -1 21 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -7 -4 0 -3 -3 -5 -6 -6 -8 -13 -13 LAND (KM) 293 303 317 322 297 233 123 7 -92 -199 -152 -44 57 143 261 242 107 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.9 15.9 16.9 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 99.7 99.8 99.7 99.4 98.7 98.0 97.7 97.7 97.9 97.7 97.0 96.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 2 3 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 39 39 39 40 45 44 34 25 26 30 36 37 37 37 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 25. 27. 30. 33. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -4. -2. -3. -1. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 13. 17. 15. 16. 18. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 99.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972024 INVEST 10/02/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.94 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.69 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 6.4% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 2.1% 3.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: .5% 4.8% 2.8% 0% 0% 3.1% 1.0% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972024 INVEST 10/02/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##