* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972024 10/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 26 26 30 33 39 41 46 47 50 52 54 55 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 26 26 30 28 27 27 27 30 34 35 37 39 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 25 26 27 30 33 37 40 45 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 27 23 26 27 25 24 22 18 14 17 11 7 9 15 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 1 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 2 0 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 88 83 77 59 59 70 76 84 78 69 72 88 104 149 135 139 93 SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.0 30.8 30.5 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 31.0 30.8 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 168 169 169 168 167 168 169 169 169 170 170 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 6 4 7 6 9 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 76 79 80 80 82 84 84 86 84 85 81 78 73 72 68 70 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 9 12 12 15 15 16 16 18 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 40 42 47 56 56 67 72 70 49 33 46 60 71 67 67 200 MB DIV 131 141 131 113 114 109 109 116 105 47 36 39 8 8 0 35 62 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 -16 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 263 266 260 257 232 154 52 -28 -85 -140 -57 41 129 208 203 71 80 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.5 15.2 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.1 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.7 98.5 98.3 98.2 98.0 97.4 96.6 96.0 95.8 95.9 95.9 95.5 94.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 3 5 6 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 37 37 38 42 40 34 29 25 28 31 32 35 37 30 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -5. -6. -3. 3. 9. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -16. -17. -16. -14. -12. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 5. 8. 15. 16. 21. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 98.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972024 INVEST 10/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.95 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 7.3% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 7.3% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.5% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% SDCON: 0% 4.6% 2.9% 0% 0% .1% 1.7% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972024 INVEST 10/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##