* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972024 10/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 29 31 35 40 47 50 53 56 59 63 64 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 29 31 35 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 31 24 21 22 22 22 19 18 16 12 11 13 13 18 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 88 94 90 82 68 66 78 84 92 89 83 91 89 99 111 116 130 SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.1 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 167 168 169 169 169 169 167 168 169 169 169 170 170 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 3 3 5 3 6 4 7 4 7 5 9 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 82 82 85 81 82 81 80 78 76 74 70 70 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 18 20 22 24 26 30 33 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 41 40 42 50 57 60 72 82 62 -4 -2 22 31 41 59 200 MB DIV 121 131 131 135 110 115 108 96 75 51 32 28 18 16 15 9 10 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 3 4 3 1 1 0 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 248 238 241 227 225 168 95 -9 -107 -180 -187 -140 -98 -73 -49 -81 -136 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.3 18.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.8 98.6 98.4 98.3 98.2 98.1 97.6 97.2 97.2 97.5 97.7 97.3 96.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 3 4 5 5 4 2 2 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 38 39 39 43 45 41 32 26 23 22 26 28 28 29 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. 1. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. 28. 31. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 20. 20. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. 38. 39. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 98.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972024 INVEST 10/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.94 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.06 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 19.8% 12.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 7.8% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 7.5% 6.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972024 INVEST 10/01/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##