* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972024 08/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 54 56 55 52 49 44 38 32 26 20 16 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 54 56 55 52 49 44 38 32 26 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 44 46 44 40 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 7 14 20 28 30 47 38 31 25 18 15 11 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 2 6 6 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 95 105 112 93 101 121 93 65 46 44 15 354 357 24 45 85 183 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.4 27.2 26.2 23.6 21.5 21.1 20.7 20.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 156 160 160 153 152 153 162 139 129 101 78 72 68 69 70 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 79 80 78 76 76 79 79 73 64 57 50 49 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 19 36 51 66 89 85 90 74 45 53 56 39 34 -2 -26 -61 200 MB DIV 43 34 30 56 80 106 148 170 63 34 -9 -28 -9 -21 -2 30 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 4 18 22 0 -29 -24 -36 -15 -25 0 -1 9 7 LAND (KM) 833 830 853 905 978 1192 1384 1366 1069 705 541 499 600 741 808 869 974 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.6 15.2 13.7 12.0 11.8 14.2 18.0 21.6 24.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.0 113.3 113.8 114.5 115.8 116.3 115.5 114.3 114.3 116.1 118.6 120.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 7 8 10 6 8 17 19 20 17 13 10 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 30 33 33 14 15 15 33 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 29. 26. 22. 18. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -6. -14. -19. -21. -20. -18. -15. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 24. 26. 25. 22. 19. 14. 9. 2. -4. -10. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 112.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972024 INVEST 08/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.74 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 19.8% 16.1% 13.6% 0.0% 22.4% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 3.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 9.0% 6.2% 4.9% 0.1% 8.0% 7.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% SDCON: 2.9% 10.0% 6.1% 3.9% .5% 6.5% 5.6% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972024 INVEST 08/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##