* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972024 08/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 71 81 84 81 77 68 61 55 51 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 71 81 84 81 77 68 61 55 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 49 54 57 55 47 36 28 22 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 7 12 17 22 15 9 8 8 5 7 8 17 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 8 11 1 4 1 4 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 86 105 122 96 77 75 60 23 23 91 47 71 122 197 214 242 255 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 27.6 25.0 22.9 21.7 22.0 22.4 23.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 155 153 154 153 158 144 117 95 83 86 89 99 111 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 77 79 78 79 79 80 84 77 70 61 60 58 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 16 20 23 27 31 32 31 31 28 26 23 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 30 41 50 68 79 81 67 51 54 69 40 52 60 53 61 200 MB DIV 45 56 35 41 45 88 121 172 118 65 9 5 -3 1 18 -30 -16 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 0 0 -6 -9 -9 -2 -4 0 2 5 10 0 2 LAND (KM) 847 834 847 885 944 1102 1265 1291 1062 767 679 765 1123 1355 1685 1743 1384 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.4 14.3 12.9 12.5 14.5 18.1 21.6 24.3 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.1 113.4 113.8 114.2 115.2 115.7 115.4 114.8 115.3 117.8 121.6 126.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 5 15 20 22 22 22 21 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 28 30 18 17 16 24 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 16. 22. 27. 29. 30. 29. 27. 25. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 21. 28. 29. 27. 25. 19. 15. 11. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 27. 37. 46. 56. 59. 56. 52. 43. 36. 30. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 112.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972024 INVEST 08/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.75 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.1% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 19.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 8.8% 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 2.7% 7.9% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.5% 10.7% 6.3% 0.5% 0.2% 8.1% 9.1% 2.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1.0% SDCON: .7% 10.8% 5.1% .7% .1% 6.5% 7.5% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972024 INVEST 08/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##