* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972024 08/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 51 63 73 79 87 88 86 80 72 67 62 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 51 63 73 79 87 88 86 80 72 67 62 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 49 53 58 60 56 47 38 31 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 16 19 18 15 7 8 5 5 5 7 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 2 -1 2 2 0 3 0 5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 101 82 107 111 92 79 71 50 358 52 91 97 122 175 190 211 254 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.9 27.4 24.3 22.3 22.0 22.6 23.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 152 152 152 154 154 156 156 142 110 89 85 91 95 98 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 75 76 81 81 80 80 81 82 76 68 63 59 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 17 21 25 27 30 30 31 29 27 25 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 27 5 8 27 37 46 89 75 81 54 45 63 57 41 54 64 75 200 MB DIV 48 54 54 49 40 41 100 155 168 90 34 25 3 0 14 13 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 1 1 0 -8 -8 -6 -2 -2 0 1 5 3 0 LAND (KM) 858 834 837 855 895 1020 1182 1330 1246 961 729 692 887 1223 1532 1875 1628 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.1 13.8 12.4 12.9 15.6 19.4 22.7 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.1 113.4 113.8 114.2 115.1 115.8 116.0 115.3 114.9 116.1 119.2 123.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 4 10 17 21 21 21 21 20 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 26 24 25 21 16 17 16 23 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 31. 31. 29. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 12. 20. 25. 29. 29. 27. 23. 18. 15. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 38. 48. 54. 62. 63. 61. 55. 47. 42. 37. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 112.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972024 INVEST 08/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.78 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.8% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 19.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 19.9% 8.1% 4.5% 1.3% 5.0% 9.0% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% Consensus: 1.4% 15.5% 8.6% 1.6% 0.5% 8.9% 9.6% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972024 INVEST 08/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##