* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 10/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 34 37 40 43 44 45 46 49 50 51 53 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 31 34 30 28 27 27 30 32 35 36 37 39 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 34 30 28 27 27 31 33 36 39 43 46 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 15 18 20 17 15 14 14 9 13 6 4 10 14 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 2 0 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 81 73 59 40 48 56 40 50 50 56 63 106 148 175 154 169 130 SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.1 31.0 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 167 168 167 167 168 168 168 168 169 169 169 170 170 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 6 4 6 5 6 5 7 6 9 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 82 86 85 84 85 84 83 84 83 84 81 77 72 72 69 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 93 77 77 78 66 77 89 86 80 51 43 48 70 72 51 60 200 MB DIV 145 150 120 130 120 93 94 84 83 49 38 38 11 20 0 36 68 700-850 TADV -6 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 1 -2 -2 -5 -5 -15 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 140 107 104 92 69 18 -49 -76 -58 -14 33 109 214 286 197 144 171 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.5 94.6 94.7 94.9 94.7 94.6 94.7 95.1 95.6 95.8 95.4 94.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 31 31 31 31 23 23 28 29 32 33 36 38 40 35 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 19. 20. 21. 23. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 94.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 10/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 20.8% 16.8% 14.2% 0.0% 23.1% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.3% 10.5% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% Consensus: 3.2% 8.3% 6.1% 5.0% 0.1% 8.5% 10.1% 8.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.6% 4.1% 3.0% 2.5% 0% 4.2% 5.0% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 10/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##