* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 09/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 41 44 51 47 48 49 51 52 51 51 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 41 44 51 36 31 35 38 38 37 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 30 31 31 31 27 27 31 33 34 35 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 26 28 29 18 23 22 15 15 12 5 6 10 14 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 3 0 4 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 61 59 60 68 70 62 55 59 62 56 77 92 147 193 195 206 191 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.5 30.8 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.0 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 162 163 164 167 169 168 169 170 169 169 169 170 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 6 4 6 5 7 5 7 5 6 5 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 84 86 87 85 84 83 81 81 79 79 78 80 78 75 72 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 11 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 56 54 52 53 56 43 54 58 59 53 52 55 72 79 77 200 MB DIV 96 115 135 129 156 150 128 79 68 54 25 47 54 59 40 26 45 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -6 -7 -2 0 0 -4 -4 -2 2 1 -1 -10 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 242 259 270 270 285 273 241 146 34 -86 -4 69 72 136 234 405 367 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.7 15.8 17.1 18.5 19.6 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.6 95.3 94.8 94.4 94.2 94.4 94.9 95.6 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 0 1 1 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 31 33 10 31 33 37 41 47 51 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 2. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 35. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. -12. -9. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 7. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 19. 26. 22. 23. 24. 26. 27. 26. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 95.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 09/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% 5.8% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 2.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 09/30/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##