* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/05/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 46 49 57 64 66 65 61 56 52 47 43 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 46 49 57 64 66 65 61 56 52 47 43 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 43 46 47 48 47 43 37 31 26 22 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 12 14 4 7 15 14 14 12 8 7 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 0 0 2 -4 -1 3 1 6 0 3 -1 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 7 335 334 330 312 51 102 107 110 119 106 155 185 169 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 26.7 25.8 24.4 23.8 23.9 23.1 23.0 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 162 158 157 155 149 132 122 107 101 103 95 93 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 81 80 79 74 72 66 64 60 56 53 50 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 49 43 36 51 66 99 108 109 92 71 71 50 53 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 94 92 110 84 149 83 34 0 37 46 -8 -12 10 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -17 -18 -20 -28 -5 -5 0 0 2 1 2 4 -3 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 542 555 568 641 742 806 897 1017 1123 1213 1326 1506 1701 1860 1882 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 15 15 14 13 13 11 11 12 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 31 33 18 16 20 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. 13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 14. 22. 29. 31. 30. 26. 21. 17. 12. 8. 5. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 105.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/05/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 21.6% 16.4% 13.7% 10.9% 24.5% 27.7% 16.6% Logistic: 0.8% 6.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 4.0% 9.1% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 3.9% 10.7% 6.7% 5.0% 3.7% 9.6% 12.4% 6.2% DTOPS: 6.0% 19.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 10.0% 7.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.9% 14.8% 7.8% 4.5% 2.8% 9.8% 9.7% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/05/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##