* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/05/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 51 60 68 70 67 61 55 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 51 60 68 70 67 61 55 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 50 48 43 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 12 12 5 8 20 22 14 13 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 2 1 1 -4 1 0 0 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 18 8 330 332 303 114 104 120 132 135 133 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.3 29.2 27.6 26.9 25.5 24.3 23.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 162 158 159 158 141 133 119 107 103 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 82 82 80 80 76 73 69 63 56 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 19 20 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 35 39 47 47 51 80 94 114 105 102 84 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 131 104 114 126 142 152 121 45 10 26 40 18 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -14 -15 -19 -22 -19 -2 0 1 1 7 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 554 568 596 630 692 828 928 1031 1105 1201 1315 1476 1676 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 11 14 16 14 12 12 11 13 13 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 28 30 26 17 27 22 9 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 26. 26. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 21. 30. 38. 40. 37. 32. 25. 20. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 105.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/05/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.41 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.77 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 26.3% 18.0% 14.8% 0.0% 25.1% 45.1% 33.1% Logistic: 2.9% 24.0% 9.7% 6.2% 0.9% 18.3% 19.3% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% Consensus: 4.5% 18.2% 10.3% 7.3% 0.3% 14.8% 21.8% 12.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 27.0% 17.0% 7.0% 3.0% 11.0% 12.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.2% 22.6% 13.6% 7.1% 1.6% 12.9% 16.9% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/05/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##