* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 50 61 75 82 84 75 69 62 53 45 39 35 32 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 50 61 75 82 84 75 69 62 53 45 39 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 44 51 57 57 53 46 37 30 23 19 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 9 11 5 7 8 9 11 9 8 5 1 4 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 4 2 7 -4 0 4 3 10 3 9 4 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 330 340 346 336 288 238 86 87 91 91 97 75 43 44 306 290 293 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.7 28.8 27.7 26.0 25.1 23.7 22.8 22.8 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 162 159 153 153 142 125 115 100 91 91 89 92 94 98 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 80 79 78 78 75 71 66 64 61 60 59 56 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 19 21 27 28 28 25 24 22 19 16 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 37 34 51 59 58 68 61 69 81 63 55 48 43 31 35 22 200 MB DIV 84 101 99 116 123 114 125 80 -7 5 11 24 -8 6 -13 -20 11 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -12 -14 -15 -18 -12 0 0 0 1 0 3 6 4 12 6 LAND (KM) 514 501 493 517 533 738 802 843 914 1003 1094 1218 1387 1533 1718 1922 1650 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 13 14 15 12 13 13 12 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 30 35 30 15 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 23. 21. 18. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 18. 20. 15. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 11. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 20. 31. 45. 52. 54. 45. 39. 32. 23. 15. 9. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 103.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.49 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.68 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 23.4% 17.1% 14.2% 0.0% 22.9% 25.3% 23.1% Logistic: 5.4% 29.7% 15.4% 8.5% 1.1% 18.0% 15.7% 5.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 16.7% 12.2% 3.1% 0.1% 3.5% 3.8% 1.0% Consensus: 5.4% 23.3% 14.9% 8.6% 0.4% 14.8% 14.9% 9.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 28.0% 12.0% 4.0% 2.0% 16.0% 23.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.7% 25.6% 13.4% 6.3% 1.2% 15.4% 18.9% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##