* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 52 66 78 87 91 88 81 71 60 51 43 39 34 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 52 66 78 87 91 88 81 71 60 51 43 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 47 55 62 67 70 65 53 41 31 23 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 11 11 8 3 5 11 16 17 16 9 9 7 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 4 5 4 3 5 1 -1 6 7 7 5 5 3 6 3 SHEAR DIR 360 354 339 340 334 278 142 74 61 94 77 68 58 70 173 235 266 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 28.7 28.4 28.5 27.4 26.9 25.8 23.8 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 161 162 154 151 151 137 131 122 102 87 89 91 92 102 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -51.3 -50.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 6 6 7 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 84 81 82 81 81 79 78 75 76 76 75 70 67 63 61 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 17 21 26 29 30 31 30 26 22 20 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 7 27 37 35 49 64 72 94 93 111 93 89 44 38 30 23 14 200 MB DIV 74 83 100 121 131 119 123 138 50 43 8 33 20 2 13 1 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -13 -17 -13 -14 -4 -7 0 -2 0 -4 9 0 9 -4 LAND (KM) 548 538 523 512 524 620 742 935 1078 1098 1052 1010 1114 1308 1499 1780 1627 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.9 16.1 17.1 17.3 17.4 18.0 19.5 21.7 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.0 104.7 105.7 106.8 109.7 113.5 116.7 118.8 119.8 120.6 122.4 125.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 12 13 18 17 13 7 6 12 15 17 19 20 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 32 29 34 14 15 16 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. 23. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 25. 26. 23. 16. 10. 7. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 8. 1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 22. 36. 48. 57. 61. 58. 51. 41. 30. 21. 13. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 103.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.47 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 24.2% 17.5% 14.4% 0.0% 23.7% 22.0% 47.6% Logistic: 6.1% 32.6% 15.2% 8.9% 1.3% 18.1% 13.9% 7.4% Bayesian: 1.9% 22.7% 18.4% 6.4% 0.4% 3.4% 3.7% 1.7% Consensus: 6.0% 26.5% 17.1% 9.9% 0.6% 15.1% 13.2% 18.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 10.0% 14.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.0% 21.2% 11.5% 5.9% .8% 12.5% 13.6% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##