* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 43 47 51 51 48 45 42 38 36 34 32 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 43 47 51 51 48 45 42 38 36 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 30 29 27 26 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 10 15 15 15 19 11 18 23 25 16 8 10 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 4 6 0 9 -1 -3 1 1 2 1 4 2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 355 356 344 334 340 313 278 222 180 118 82 68 42 10 275 262 254 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.4 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.3 27.9 27.2 25.7 23.6 22.8 22.6 22.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 163 159 154 154 146 138 141 134 121 100 93 91 94 102 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 86 85 82 83 83 80 78 76 74 74 77 78 72 70 66 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 12 32 42 39 65 58 101 112 122 113 101 85 73 55 43 47 200 MB DIV 91 90 81 104 113 107 69 126 107 74 57 18 5 -1 15 -21 -29 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -5 -17 -18 -29 2 -2 6 -2 -12 -9 -12 14 1 3 LAND (KM) 563 546 532 521 505 537 658 828 1056 1228 1253 1194 1187 1359 1541 1788 1650 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 16.0 17.3 18.0 17.9 17.5 17.8 19.4 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.8 104.4 105.2 106.1 108.6 112.0 116.0 119.1 121.0 121.6 122.5 124.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 11 16 19 18 12 6 6 11 15 19 20 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 37 32 28 21 17 9 6 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. 27. 25. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 21. 18. 15. 12. 8. 6. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 103.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.32 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 18.3% 14.1% 11.5% 0.0% 19.4% 16.7% 15.3% Logistic: 0.5% 5.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 2.1% 2.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 2.7% 8.7% 5.5% 4.1% 0.0% 7.2% 6.4% 5.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 5.8% 3.7% 2.5% 0% 4.1% 4.7% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##