* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 34 41 47 51 54 55 53 50 46 42 39 37 35 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 34 41 47 51 54 55 53 50 46 42 39 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 35 36 35 34 33 32 31 28 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 12 8 7 13 15 14 9 16 20 16 9 5 6 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 5 3 3 5 2 4 2 -1 0 2 3 2 4 0 6 SHEAR DIR 17 8 10 12 12 355 305 246 224 166 106 78 62 50 346 271 245 SST (C) 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.6 24.9 23.3 22.7 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 163 161 160 158 154 152 146 140 133 128 112 97 92 92 94 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 87 85 83 84 83 80 79 76 74 74 77 76 72 68 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 12 36 33 40 58 61 105 109 121 103 93 82 75 49 43 200 MB DIV 111 101 91 93 101 104 113 113 122 103 79 25 29 -14 -10 6 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -5 -19 -13 -5 1 3 -3 -7 -6 -4 -4 6 LAND (KM) 619 623 623 611 593 571 614 698 906 1120 1269 1293 1235 1246 1419 1588 1823 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.5 14.7 16.3 17.5 18.2 18.0 17.8 18.3 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.1 104.0 104.6 105.1 105.7 107.3 109.8 113.4 117.2 120.1 121.8 122.6 123.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 6 8 12 16 19 16 11 6 6 10 13 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 40 34 29 29 14 14 10 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 23. 20. 16. 12. 9. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 103.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 18.3% 14.0% 11.5% 0.0% 19.6% 18.4% 18.1% Logistic: 0.5% 7.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.1% 5.1% 5.1% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 2.1% Consensus: 2.6% 9.4% 5.8% 4.2% 0.0% 8.3% 8.0% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.3% 5.7% 3.4% 2.6% 0% 4.6% 6.0% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##