* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/03/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 53 66 79 83 87 85 82 76 70 64 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 53 66 79 83 87 85 82 76 70 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 36 41 48 54 60 64 67 66 61 50 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 14 10 11 5 3 6 4 5 12 13 14 8 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 5 2 6 -1 8 0 -1 -2 -1 3 3 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 19 17 13 8 4 4 227 73 195 113 101 46 52 50 85 64 348 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 27.9 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.3 24.5 23.6 22.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 161 160 159 157 157 157 146 140 138 131 126 109 101 93 96 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 85 82 82 82 77 79 75 73 71 74 71 69 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 18 21 26 28 31 31 32 30 28 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -4 -13 -3 9 25 50 44 74 92 116 121 101 86 75 65 45 200 MB DIV 89 123 92 91 89 112 140 86 109 77 86 62 26 15 -14 1 10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 -7 0 -13 -9 -7 -3 -5 -2 -3 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 642 672 687 693 688 641 605 712 764 975 1190 1335 1354 1344 1453 1647 1851 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 13.3 14.8 16.4 17.7 18.2 18.0 17.8 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.6 104.3 104.8 105.2 106.3 108.1 111.0 114.8 118.3 121.0 122.6 123.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 6 5 5 9 14 18 19 15 10 6 8 12 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 40 44 38 33 29 23 27 16 8 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 31. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 22. 24. 27. 26. 24. 20. 16. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 23. 36. 49. 53. 57. 55. 52. 46. 40. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 102.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/03/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.25 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.32 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 21.1% 15.5% 12.6% 0.0% 21.3% 20.0% 38.8% Logistic: 0.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 2.6% 4.5% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% Consensus: 3.2% 8.6% 5.6% 4.4% 0.0% 8.0% 8.2% 17.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.1% 6.3% 3.8% 2.7% 0% 4.5% 5.6% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/03/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##