* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 37 39 44 49 53 55 54 52 50 47 42 39 35 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 37 39 44 49 53 55 54 52 50 47 42 39 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 35 37 38 39 38 36 34 32 30 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 17 15 13 16 17 15 20 11 16 22 21 21 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 6 4 5 4 5 2 5 3 0 0 0 5 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 359 17 13 10 3 347 360 318 257 240 178 132 83 57 31 6 318 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.2 26.9 26.9 25.9 24.2 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 162 162 160 159 155 154 147 137 131 130 122 106 94 92 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -51.8 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 6 5 4 4 4 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 84 84 82 83 81 79 77 72 71 71 75 71 65 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 12 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 -11 -13 -11 25 34 47 58 73 91 112 103 94 77 72 36 200 MB DIV 64 90 103 94 103 125 124 118 84 108 89 76 42 41 0 -6 3 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -14 -25 -21 -18 7 4 0 -11 -16 0 -19 LAND (KM) 628 656 668 671 678 660 612 599 664 847 1097 1302 1358 1262 1215 1342 1547 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.9 15.8 17.5 18.5 18.4 17.8 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.6 103.3 103.8 104.3 105.3 106.8 109.2 112.7 116.7 120.2 122.2 122.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 6 5 5 7 12 17 20 18 14 6 3 9 13 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 44 43 40 30 25 18 16 10 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 34. 33. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 24. 22. 20. 17. 12. 9. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 101.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.19 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.36 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 21.8% 15.6% 12.5% 0.0% 21.4% 18.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 4.1% 9.3% 12.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.5% Consensus: 3.4% 10.6% 6.4% 4.7% 0.0% 8.6% 9.5% 4.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.2% 7.3% 4.2% 2.8% 0% 4.8% 5.7% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##