* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 31 36 38 37 37 35 33 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 31 36 38 37 37 35 33 31 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 22 25 20 24 24 24 25 18 19 24 30 27 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 8 10 7 4 8 1 3 3 3 0 0 5 1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 336 334 345 348 354 338 330 301 284 241 205 137 95 70 54 11 358 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.0 28.7 27.5 26.7 26.6 27.3 26.7 24.7 22.6 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 157 157 162 163 158 156 143 133 129 132 130 111 90 85 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 8 7 4 3 3 4 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 81 79 79 80 78 78 77 74 75 71 67 67 73 71 66 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -7 -9 -11 -18 -4 32 60 61 82 101 118 119 98 75 60 44 200 MB DIV 63 63 85 75 50 71 106 123 108 94 52 71 14 -10 25 -32 -14 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -7 -9 -10 -9 -18 -24 -35 -2 0 19 0 -10 -7 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 558 549 539 534 509 466 445 410 566 693 999 1287 1404 1296 1114 1079 1269 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.3 13.3 14.4 16.2 17.9 19.2 19.2 18.3 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.6 99.4 100.2 101.0 102.4 104.3 107.0 110.9 115.4 119.7 122.5 123.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 13 18 22 22 18 9 1 8 13 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 20 26 36 36 31 31 32 29 15 5 2 1 5 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 34. 37. 38. 38. 38. 38. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 11. 13. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 3. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 97.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.2% 6.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: .1% 3.6% .7% .1% 0% .2% .6% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/03/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##