* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 27 31 38 40 40 40 39 38 36 33 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 27 31 38 40 40 40 39 38 36 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 18 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 21 23 24 24 23 24 21 22 24 26 22 21 28 34 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 7 11 6 5 4 2 2 4 2 0 -1 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 347 329 333 343 347 343 330 317 296 267 244 185 140 91 65 42 4 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.4 26.8 25.4 26.8 27.4 26.8 24.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 158 158 157 158 162 163 159 153 136 120 132 136 133 109 88 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -50.6 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 6 8 5 3 2 3 4 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 79 79 79 78 79 74 75 74 73 65 67 75 75 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -11 -11 -12 -13 -7 21 37 53 69 94 114 139 122 91 51 32 200 MB DIV 56 70 71 75 72 55 89 105 117 92 38 70 35 9 30 -15 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -5 -7 -10 -7 -13 -21 -37 -23 -6 22 17 7 -15 -19 -2 LAND (KM) 577 569 571 550 544 486 454 400 409 496 733 1093 1408 1496 1296 1053 1034 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.7 13.7 15.1 17.1 19.0 20.1 19.7 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.8 98.6 99.4 100.2 101.5 103.0 105.0 108.0 112.3 117.1 121.4 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 10 15 20 24 22 18 10 5 12 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 28 36 37 29 32 31 22 11 1 0 3 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 35. 37. 39. 40. 40. 41. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 2. 6. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 97.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 1.7% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 6.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: .1% 3.7% .6% .1% 0% .1% .8% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##