* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 38 48 56 68 75 86 90 92 87 81 75 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 38 48 56 68 75 86 90 92 87 81 75 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 29 30 32 34 38 44 51 58 59 56 50 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 14 15 17 16 12 14 11 5 9 5 8 11 16 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 4 7 9 3 3 1 0 -3 -1 1 2 1 1 6 SHEAR DIR 7 353 332 335 344 344 328 323 294 302 137 82 64 65 87 69 55 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.9 27.8 27.5 26.4 25.7 24.0 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 158 158 157 160 163 161 158 156 143 139 127 120 103 91 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 81 80 81 81 81 83 81 80 77 77 74 72 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 10 13 13 17 19 22 24 30 31 35 34 32 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -2 -5 -8 -12 -19 0 8 38 49 76 93 118 117 123 104 90 200 MB DIV 52 70 85 85 70 62 102 148 149 126 145 114 56 0 11 6 -26 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -8 -12 -19 -8 -6 1 0 1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 573 566 561 562 550 536 508 497 465 539 620 720 823 885 932 1001 1146 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.6 14.9 16.3 17.7 18.5 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.1 97.9 98.7 99.4 100.8 102.0 103.6 105.9 108.9 112.1 115.1 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 11 15 17 16 13 10 8 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 20 28 36 34 33 36 29 21 18 6 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 30. 34. 38. 40. 41. 41. 41. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 9. 13. 20. 22. 29. 29. 30. 26. 21. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 23. 31. 43. 50. 61. 65. 67. 62. 56. 50. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 96.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.36 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 12.4% 3.7% 1.9% 0.3% 3.6% 6.3% 28.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 5.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.8% 5.7% 0.7% 0.1% 6.7% 7.8% 11.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/02/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##