* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962024 08/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 32 36 44 55 67 74 84 92 94 91 85 80 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 29 32 36 44 55 67 74 84 92 94 91 85 80 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 33 36 41 49 57 62 60 55 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 17 15 18 11 15 13 10 4 3 8 10 16 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 2 5 9 5 2 3 1 0 1 -1 4 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 4 8 359 326 337 348 347 320 311 291 139 141 85 82 77 84 72 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.9 26.8 26.2 24.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 157 159 156 158 162 164 158 157 151 144 131 125 110 98 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -50.4 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 5 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 82 83 82 82 83 84 82 84 79 78 76 74 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 10 12 15 18 21 23 27 31 33 34 32 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -8 -2 -8 -10 -16 -6 9 23 38 61 84 103 117 115 116 92 200 MB DIV 52 55 72 81 86 79 65 110 145 142 126 142 79 32 -6 22 2 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 0 -5 -11 -17 -11 -6 1 4 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 588 562 561 574 572 564 531 519 492 508 637 661 787 853 909 954 1073 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.6 12.3 13.0 14.1 15.4 16.9 18.0 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.7 97.5 98.3 99.1 100.4 101.6 102.9 104.7 107.4 110.5 113.6 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 9 12 16 17 14 12 8 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 18 24 34 38 33 39 32 30 16 12 8 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 35. 38. 41. 42. 43. 42. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 20. 25. 29. 28. 26. 21. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 7. 11. 19. 30. 42. 49. 59. 67. 69. 66. 60. 55. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 95.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962024 INVEST 08/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.41 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 31.6% 11.2% 6.0% 1.3% 7.2% 5.4% 26.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 2.3% 2.6% Consensus: 1.7% 17.5% 8.3% 2.0% 0.4% 8.4% 7.8% 9.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962024 INVEST 08/02/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##