* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP952024 09/25/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 45 47 47 42 37 33 32 33 35 35 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 30 31 32 33 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 29 28 27 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 12 7 13 17 21 20 18 10 8 6 6 4 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 0 6 6 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 2 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 58 57 53 92 106 147 161 171 163 152 133 109 107 99 110 121 127 SST (C) 31.1 31.1 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.9 30.7 30.9 30.8 30.9 31.1 28.3 26.9 26.1 24.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 170 170 171 170 170 171 172 172 172 148 133 125 106 112 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.0 -50.7 -50.5 -51.3 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 7 4 5 3 6 3 6 3 5 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 74 74 75 74 71 69 68 65 62 58 55 52 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 17 14 13 10 8 7 7 8 7 5 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 61 54 56 52 70 77 71 71 85 83 113 94 91 59 43 14 200 MB DIV 105 103 129 108 119 98 74 111 111 59 32 32 20 -6 11 -10 -18 700-850 TADV 3 -6 -2 4 2 5 7 1 3 4 -1 -4 -4 -3 3 1 3 LAND (KM) 133 149 121 73 16 -137 -146 -93 -177 -369 -175 14 170 89 292 436 618 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.7 18.9 20.1 21.0 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.4 101.0 100.4 99.8 98.4 97.6 97.8 99.1 101.3 103.6 105.8 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 5 6 7 8 6 6 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 45 45 45 37 26 26 13 35 52 52 36 20 8 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -9. -13. -14. -14. -12. -12. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 12. 7. 2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.2 101.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 JOHN 09/25/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 16.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 8.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 8.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -13.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.40 3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 59.0% 45.7% 35.3% 24.8% 46.1% 46.7% 53.8% Logistic: 6.5% 41.6% 21.3% 15.4% 7.0% 36.2% 28.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 14.3% 15.2% 4.8% 0.6% 7.9% 2.8% 6.9% Consensus: 7.8% 38.3% 27.4% 18.5% 10.8% 30.1% 26.0% 21.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.4% 24.6% 17.2% 11.2% 6.4% 15.5% 13.0% 10.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 JOHN 09/25/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##