* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 09/25/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 44 53 54 50 40 35 28 29 29 30 31 31 32 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 44 45 33 29 28 27 27 27 30 31 32 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 34 36 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 29 28 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 16 16 11 15 25 25 20 21 13 8 3 7 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 6 10 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 6 6 10 SHEAR DIR 74 65 59 59 82 115 138 169 166 150 139 137 131 122 171 225 223 SST (C) 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.1 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.7 31.0 31.1 29.2 26.2 23.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 170 170 171 171 171 170 171 171 172 172 172 157 126 98 104 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 7 5 5 3 5 3 5 4 5 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 72 75 76 76 76 70 69 67 64 59 55 53 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 17 16 15 14 15 13 12 8 8 6 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 70 69 57 58 55 67 79 55 76 79 82 96 73 77 58 9 200 MB DIV 120 141 152 140 119 128 78 90 97 82 41 55 12 1 -2 0 2 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -6 0 9 5 -3 2 1 5 -1 -9 -1 9 8 10 LAND (KM) 235 244 222 179 133 -26 -187 -67 -57 -185 -378 -185 37 79 129 290 476 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.8 18.1 19.5 20.8 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 102.6 102.1 101.4 100.6 98.9 97.5 97.0 97.8 99.5 101.5 103.8 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 6 7 8 10 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 45 45 46 44 22 31 32 26 28 49 48 35 14 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -6. -3. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -7. -7. -10. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 23. 24. 20. 10. 5. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 102.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 09/25/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 16.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.51 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -12.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 10.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.40 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 -0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 61.6% 42.5% 28.5% 0.0% 43.2% 57.9% 53.6% Logistic: 7.7% 39.0% 16.0% 11.0% 7.6% 39.4% 34.8% 3.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 10.5% 6.0% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% Consensus: 7.6% 37.0% 21.5% 13.7% 2.9% 27.9% 31.3% 19.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.3% 23.0% 12.7% 7.3% 1.9% 14.4% 16.1% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 09/25/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##