* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 09/25/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 58 61 55 45 36 30 26 27 28 28 27 30 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 46 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 25 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 13 9 4 14 22 25 26 19 13 6 2 3 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 3 6 8 1 0 3 0 -1 2 5 4 9 SHEAR DIR 54 60 49 45 69 122 153 157 164 158 152 118 130 170 111 203 185 SST (C) 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.0 31.0 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.9 31.2 29.1 27.1 24.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 169 169 169 170 170 170 170 171 172 171 172 156 135 108 99 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.2 -50.7 -49.8 -50.5 -50.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 8 6 7 4 5 3 6 3 6 3 6 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 71 74 72 71 68 66 67 62 59 55 53 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 17 15 13 10 9 8 7 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 70 75 74 69 63 80 83 74 77 92 86 104 63 60 32 25 200 MB DIV 98 120 127 134 142 151 100 81 90 110 44 22 14 0 -1 -15 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -5 -5 -1 4 14 7 0 4 3 -1 -9 -3 -6 15 11 LAND (KM) 179 164 148 111 78 -18 -161 -149 -97 -188 -364 -193 -15 142 9 160 336 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.3 21.2 21.8 22.2 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 101.9 101.6 101.0 100.5 99.3 98.3 97.7 98.0 99.3 101.3 103.5 105.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 5 7 7 6 6 9 11 10 11 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 44 44 45 45 37 28 24 17 32 51 50 39 24 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 382 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. 0. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 23. 26. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 4. 2. 0. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 8. 1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 28. 31. 25. 15. 6. -0. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 102.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 09/25/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 16.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -12.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.77 9.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 55.8% 41.2% 27.6% 0.0% 49.2% 65.0% 53.6% Logistic: 7.0% 41.9% 21.6% 14.8% 10.0% 49.4% 51.1% 4.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 11.9% 11.5% 3.4% 0.9% 3.2% 3.4% 4.8% Consensus: 7.0% 36.5% 24.8% 15.3% 3.7% 33.9% 39.8% 20.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 09/25/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##